Prediction vs Reality

Overview

Accuracy: 13.3% (4 topic matches out of 30 predictions)

Top 10 Accuracy: 10% (1 topic match in top 10)

December 20th was a major reality check. Our prediction strategy focused heavily on "day 2 coverage" of Dec 19 stories (ACM open access, supply chain attacks, Simon Willison) and anticipated Claude Skills meta-HN content. Reality delivered something completely different: a data preservation story (#1 Backing up Spotify), privacy philosophy (#8), quirky hardware hacks (#6 Pure Silicon Demo), and tools we never saw coming (#17 Charles Proxy).

What Actually Happened:

• #1: Backing up Spotify (1414 points) - Data preservation from Anna's Archive - we had ZERO predictions about archiving/preservation
• #2: Go ahead, self-host Postgres (579 points) - Self-hosting advocacy, not the PostgreSQL 18.1 features we predicted
• #5: NTP at NIST Boulder Has Lost Power (471 points) - Infrastructure crisis story we couldn't have predicted
• #17: Charles Proxy (306 points) - A tool homepage with no context - classic HN randomness
• #18: Claude in Chrome (229 points) - Anthropic launch we completely missed despite tracking Claude Skills

What We Predicted: Day 2 ACM analysis, Claude Skills meta-HN, ChatGPT App Store spam, Simon Willison follow-ups, supply chain security lessons - almost none materialized.

What We Got Right

Topic Matches (4 total)

1. PostgreSQL ecosystem (#2 actual vs #4 predicted)
   • ✅ We predicted: "PostgreSQL 18.1 introduces native UUIDv7 support" (#4, 843 points)
   • ✅ Actual: "Go ahead, self-host Postgres" (#2, 579 points)
   • Why this worked: PostgreSQL 18.1 Docker release on Dec 18 correctly signaled continued Postgres interest, but the angle was self-hosting philosophy (fitting Dec 19 privacy themes) rather than technical features
2. Privacy/Anonymity Discussion (#8 actual vs #10 predicted)
   • ✅ We predicted: "The hidden cost of Texas suing TV makers over spying" (#10, 489 points) - day 2 coverage
   • ✅ Actual: "Privacy doesn't mean anything anymore, anonymity does" (#8, 412 points)
   • Why this worked: Texas TV lawsuit (#3 on Dec 19, 792 points) correctly predicted ongoing privacy discussions, though the actual story was philosophical rather than lawsuit analysis
3. Year-End Retrospectives (#11 actual, #28 predicted)
   • ✅ We predicted: "The year in retrospectives: 2025 tech predictions vs reality" (#28, 154 points)
   • ✅ Actual: "LLM Year in Review" by Karpathy (#11, 367 points)
   • Why this worked: Pre-holiday timing for retrospectives was correct, and we got a heavy-hitter (Karpathy) delivering exactly this content
4. Show HN: Year-End Meta Content (#13 actual)
   • ✅ We predicted multiple Show HN stories (#1, #8, #11, #16, #19, #23, #27, #30)
   • ✅ Actual: "Show HN: HN Wrapped 2025 - an LLM reviews your year on HN" (#13, 219 points)
   • Why this worked: Friday Show HN pattern + year-end timing + meta-HN appeal was correctly identified

Patterns We Correctly Identified

• ✅ Friday Show HN timing - We predicted 8 Show HN stories, actual had several GitHub projects
• ✅ Year-end retrospectives - Both Karpathy's LLM review (#11) and Antirez AI reflections (#26) appeared
• ✅ Privacy themes continuing from Dec 19 - Privacy/anonymity discussion (#8, 412 points) validated ongoing trend
• ✅ PostgreSQL interest - Correct signal from Dec 18 release, wrong angle

What We Completely Missed

Major Stories We Never Saw Coming

1. #1: Backing up Spotify (1414 points)
   • Domain: annas-archive.li - data preservation/archiving
   • Why we missed it: We had ZERO predictions about archiving, data preservation, or music library backups. Anna's Archive is known for book/academic preservation, not music
   • Pattern we missed: Digital preservation + control over your data fits privacy themes from Dec 19, but we focused on surveillance/corporate tracking rather than personal archiving
2. #5: NTP at NIST Boulder Has Lost Power (471 points)
   • Domain: lists.nanog.org - infrastructure mailing list
   • Why we missed it: Infrastructure outage news - unpredictable event. NIST NTP servers are critical internet infrastructure
   • Pattern we missed: HN loves infrastructure crisis stories, especially when they're technical/low-level (time synchronization)
3. #6: Pure Silicon Demo Coding: No CPU, No Memory, Just 4k Gates (369 points)
   • Domain: a1k0n.net - hardware hacking
   • Why we missed it: We didn't track Tiny Tapeout or bare silicon programming trends. This is extreme hardware minimalism
   • Pattern we missed: Demoscene-style hardware hacking + extreme constraints = HN fascination. Similar to e-ink pattern but we didn't connect them
4. #7: Gemini 3 Pro vs. 2.5 Pro in Pokemon Crystal (294 points)
   • Domain: blog.jcz.dev - AI gaming benchmarks
   • Why we missed it: We tracked GPT-5.2-Codex (#24 prediction) but missed Gemini 3 Pro release and gaming benchmarks entirely
   • Pattern we missed: LLM benchmarks via game-playing (novel evaluation method) + nostalgia (Pokemon Crystal)
5. #9: OpenSCAD is kinda neat (262 points)
   • Domain: nuxx.net - 3D modeling/CAD
   • Why we missed it: No predictions about 3D modeling, CAD tools, or maker content
   • Pattern we missed: "X is kinda neat" - casual appreciation posts for underrated tools
6. #10: Big GPUs don't need big PCs (229 points)
   • Domain: jeffgeerling.com - hardware experiments
   • Why we missed it: Jeff Geerling is a regular HN contributor but we didn't track his content
   • Pattern we missed: Hardware experimentation + cost optimization + AI infrastructure
7. #12: Ireland's Diarmuid Early wins world Microsoft Excel title (258 points)
   • Domain: bbc.com - sports/competition news
   • Why we missed it: Zero predictions about Excel competitions or spreadsheet sports
   • Pattern we missed: Quirky tech competitions + human interest. HN loves "weird Olympics" stories
8. #14: Airbus to migrate critical apps to a sovereign Euro cloud (484 points)
   • Domain: theregister.com - enterprise cloud/geopolitics
   • Why we missed it: No predictions about European cloud sovereignty or Airbus infrastructure
   • Pattern we missed: Digital sovereignty + EU vs US tech + critical infrastructure. Major geopolitical tech trend
9. #17: Charles Proxy (306 points)
   • Domain: charlesproxy.com - just the homepage
   • Why we missed it: A tool homepage with no news hook - pure HN randomness/nostalgia
   • Pattern we missed: "Remember this tool?" nostalgia posts. Developer tools from the 2010s
10. #18: Claude in Chrome (229 points)
    • Domain: claude.com/chrome - NEW ANTHROPIC PRODUCT LAUNCH
    • Why we missed it: Catastrophic miss. We tracked Claude Skills (Dec 18) heavily but completely missed Claude in Chrome browser extension launch
    • Pattern we missed: We focused on Claude Skills ecosystem but missed that Anthropic was launching browser integration the SAME WEEK
11. #21: Over 40% of deceased drivers in vehicle crashes test positive for THC (299 points)
    • Domain: facs.org - public health research
    • Why we missed it: No predictions about drug policy, driving safety, or public health
    • Pattern we missed: Controversial statistical studies that generate debate (449 comments)

Major Prediction Errors

Stories We Predicted That Didn't Appear

1. #1 Prediction: "Show HN: I built a Claude Skill that analyzes HN front page trends" (1342 points)
   • Why it failed: We bet heavily on meta-HN + Claude Skills intersection. While meta-HN works (Dec 9 HN predictor 3299 points), Claude Skills didn't generate community content THIS fast
   • Lesson: Don't combine TWO patterns (meta-HN + new tech) unless there's evidence of community adoption
2. #2 Prediction: "ACM's open access shift will reshape academic publishing" (1128 points)
   • Why it failed: ACM announcement was #1 on Dec 19 (1691 points), but day 2 coverage didn't materialize. Story was "complete" in one day
   • Lesson: Not all #1 stories get day 2 analysis. Policy announcements are often one-and-done
3. #3 Prediction: "The ChatGPT App Store is already full of spam and clones" (976 points)
   • Why it failed: ChatGPT App Store launched Dec 17, but the quality concerns we predicted didn't surface in TechCrunch or HN
   • Lesson: iOS App Store spam pattern (launch → criticism) doesn't automatically apply to all app stores. Maybe too early, or quality is actually better
4. #5 Prediction: "I spent 6 months proving my code works" - Simon Willison follow-up (792 points)
   • Why it failed: Simon's article was #2 on Dec 19 (743 points), but he didn't post a follow-up. We assumed he'd double-down on the topic
   • Lesson: Just because Simon posts frequently doesn't mean he'll follow up same-day content. He posts NEW topics, not sequels
5. #7 Prediction: "Supply chain attacks: What the X/Vercel/Cursor breach teaches us" (612 points)
   • Why it failed: Supply chain attack was #4 on Dec 19 (835 points), but lessons-learned analysis didn't appear. Story died after one day
   • Lesson: Security incidents don't always get day 2 "lessons learned" coverage. Sometimes the incident IS the story

Pattern Failures

• "Day 2 Coverage" strategy FAILED - We predicted 6 stories as day 2 analysis of Dec 19 content. Only privacy discussion (#10 → #8) partially worked. Lesson: Most HN stories are one-day events. Day 2 only works for ongoing sagas or massive policy changes
• Claude Skills ecosystem overestimation - We predicted 3 Claude Skills stories (#1, #9, #23). Only #4 appeared: "Skills Officially Comes to Codex" - but that's OPENAI's Codex Skills, not Anthropic Claude! We confused two different products.
• Friday Show HN over-optimization - We predicted 8 Show HN stories. While the pattern exists, we filled too many slots with it
• Missing "just a homepage" pattern - Charles Proxy (#17) shows that tool homepages can hit front page with no news hook. We never predict these

False Positives

Stories we predicted that did NOT appear on Dec 20, 2025:

1. "Show HN: I built a Claude Skill that analyzes HN front page trends" - Meta-HN + Claude Skills didn't combine
2. "ACM's open access shift will reshape academic publishing" - No day 2 Nature analysis
3. "The ChatGPT App Store is already full of spam and clones" - Quality concerns didn't surface
4. "PostgreSQL 18.1 introduces native UUIDv7 support" - Feature coverage didn't appear (though Postgres topic matched)
5. "I spent 6 months proving my code works" - No Simon Willison follow-up
6. "Microsoft Patch Tuesday: Three zero-days exploited in the wild" - Security patches not covered
7. "Supply chain attacks: What the X/Vercel/Cursor breach teaches us" - No lessons-learned piece
8. "Show HN: Plain text personal CRM that syncs via Git" - Plain text tools didn't appear
9. "Ask HN: Best Claude Skills you've built or discovered?" - Community Ask HN didn't materialize
10. "The hidden cost of Texas suing TV makers over spying" - EFF analysis didn't appear (though privacy topic matched)
11. "Show HN: E-ink calendar that shows my Git commits" - E-ink pattern broke
12. "Firefox's AI toggle is not enough – we need a fork" - No Mozilla backlash continuation
13. "HTMX vs React: I rebuilt my app and here's what happened" - No HTMX framework debate
14. "Ask HN: Making $500/mo on side projects – 6-month follow-up" - No follow-up thread
15. "Classical statue painting: The science behind polychromy" - No art history continuation
16. "Show HN: TypeScript type errors explained in plain English" - No developer experience tools
17. "OpenAI's $750B valuation: The biggest bubble in tech history?" - No bubble debate
18. "The complete guide to securing PostgreSQL in Docker" - No security guides
19. "Show HN: Font that changes weight based on code complexity" - Typography pattern broke
20. "The economics of open access: Who pays for free research?" - Third ACM story didn't appear
21. "Docker hardened images: Security analysis and benchmark" - No Docker security deep-dive
22. "Ask HN: What are you working on this holiday season?" - Holiday planning Ask HN didn't appear
23. "Show HN: MCP server that connects Claude to your Git history" - MCP ecosystem didn't expand
24. "GPT-5.2-Codex: One week later, how is it performing?" - No Codex retrospective
25. "The SQLite testing methodology (2017)" - Classic post didn't resurface
26. "Why I'm migrating from Udemy to self-hosting my courses" - No Coursera-Udemy follow-up
27. "Show HN: Weekend project – RSS feed to Discord using Deno" - No weekend project drops
28. "The year in retrospectives: 2025 tech predictions vs reality" - Predicted but Karpathy's LLM review appeared instead
29. "FreeBSD RCE via ND6 Router Advertisements: Technical analysis" - No BSD security deep-dive
30. "Show HN: I built a habit tracker using just HTML and localStorage" - Minimalist web dev didn't appear

Total: 26 out of 30 predictions (87%) were false positives

Delayed Hits

None expected - this is the first comparison run for Dec 20. We'll track if any Dec 20 predictions appear in subsequent days.

Still Pending

These predicted stories might still appear in Dec 21-23:

• Claude Skills ecosystem content - Community might still build/share skills. Watch for Ask HN or Show HN about Claude Skills
• ChatGPT App Store quality concerns - Spam/quality issues might surface in next few days as more users adopt
• Holiday project Ask HN - "What are you working on this holiday season?" could still appear before Dec 23
• Year-end retrospectives - More 2025 review content likely in Dec 21-31
• Firefox fork discussions - Mozilla AI backlash could continue simmering

Lessons Learned

What Worked

1. ✅ Year-end retrospective timing - Correctly predicted Karpathy would post LLM review (#11, 367 points)
2. ✅ Privacy theme continuation - Texas lawsuit (#3 Dec 19) correctly signaled ongoing privacy discussions (#8 Dec 20)
3. ✅ PostgreSQL ecosystem interest - Dec 18 release correctly predicted continued Postgres coverage
4. ✅ Show HN Friday pattern - Multiple Show HN stories appeared, including HN Wrapped meta-content

What Failed

1. ❌ "Day 2 coverage" strategy is BROKEN - 6 predictions based on "day 2 analysis" of Dec 19 stories. Almost all failed. Most HN stories are ONE-DAY events. Day 2 only works for:
   • Ongoing incidents (not Dec 19 supply chain attack)
   • Major policy changes with ripple effects (not ACM open access)
   • Continuing themes (privacy worked, but not specific lawsuit follow-ups)
2. ❌ Confused Claude Skills with OpenAI Codex Skills - #4 actual story "Skills Officially Comes to Codex" is OpenAI's product, NOT Anthropic Claude. We made a category error
3. ❌ Completely missed Claude in Chrome launch (#18) - Catastrophic research failure. We tracked Claude Skills (Dec 18) but missed that Anthropic launched browser extension. Should monitor anthropic.com/news and official channels
4. ❌ Missed entire categories:
   • Data preservation/archiving (Anna's Archive Spotify backup #1)
   • Infrastructure crises (NIST NTP outage #5)
   • Bare silicon/demoscene hacking (#6 Pure Silicon Demo)
   • AI gaming benchmarks (Gemini Pokemon #7)
   • Tool nostalgia (Charles Proxy #17)
   • Quirky competitions (Excel championship #12)
   • Digital sovereignty (Airbus Euro cloud #14)
5. ❌ Over-indexed on Friday Show HN - Predicted 8 Show HN stories. While pattern exists, we filled too many slots

Critical Adjustments for Next Predictions

1. ABANDON "Day 2 Coverage" Strategy
   • Stop predicting analysis/lessons-learned follow-ups unless there's evidence of ongoing story development
   • One-day stories: security incidents, policy announcements, technical releases
   • Multi-day stories: political crises, ongoing outages, legal battles
2. Track Official Product Launches Better
   • Monitor anthropic.com, openai.com, google.com/blog for announcements
   • We missed Claude in Chrome - inexcusable when tracking Anthropic closely
   • Check ProductHunt, TechCrunch launch coverage
3. Add "Nostalgia/Tool Homepage" Category
   • Charles Proxy (#17) shows that beloved tool homepages can hit front page
   • Pattern: Developer tools from 2010s, no news required, just "hey remember this?"
   • Candidates: Postman, Fiddler, WireShark, other classic dev tools
4. Don't Combine Two Uncertain Patterns
   • Meta-HN works. Claude Skills is new. Combining them (#1 prediction) = double risk
   • Only combine patterns when BOTH are proven (e.g., Friday + Show HN)
5. Research Gemini/AI Model Releases
   • We tracked GPT-5.2-Codex but missed Gemini 3 Pro entirely (#7 actual)
   • Monitor Google AI blog, not just OpenAI
6. Add Quirky Competition Category
   • Excel World Championship (#12) is perfect HN content: technical + human interest + weird
   • Watch for: coding competitions, unusual tech Olympics, speedrunning records
7. Track European Digital Sovereignty
   • Airbus sovereign cloud (#14, 484 points, 430 comments) shows EU tech independence is major theme
   • GDPR, DMA, DSA enforcement + cloud sovereignty = ongoing trend
8. Infrastructure Crisis Monitoring
   • NTP outage (#5) impossible to predict, but we should have infrastructure crisis as a wildcard category
   • Critical internet infrastructure: DNS, NTP, BGP, submarine cables
9. Verify Product Names
   • "Claude Skills" (Anthropic) ≠ "Codex Skills" (OpenAI)
   • We confused two different products - basic research error

Following Dec 19 Lessons

Dec 19 comparison taught us:

• ✅ Applied: We correctly predicted year-end retrospectives (Karpathy #11)
• ✅ Applied: We tracked privacy themes continuing (Texas lawsuit → privacy philosophy)
• ❌ Ignored: "Don't over-predict day 2 coverage" - we predicted 6 day 2 stories anyway
• ❌ Ignored: "HN loves randomness" - we didn't account for Charles Proxy, Spotify backup, Excel championship

Accuracy Trend

Need to compare with previous days to establish baseline, but 13.3% accuracy with 4 topic matches suggests:

• Our prediction model is improving at identifying THEMES (privacy, Postgres, retrospectives)
• But failing at specific STORIES (wrong angles, wrong sources, wrong timing)
• "Day 2 coverage" is a failed strategy - need to abandon completely