Prediction vs Reality

Overview

Accuracy: 16.7% (5 topic matches out of 30 predictions). December 22nd shows marginal improvement from Dec 21 (13.3%) but we're still missing major stories. Reality delivered educational content (#1 Illustrated Transformer, 434pts), Claude Code LSP breakthrough (#2, 475pts), and the massive offshore wind controversy (#15, 571pts with 490 comments).

What Worked

• Claude ecosystem tracking - Predicted Claude in Chrome usage (#5), actual had Claude Code LSP (#2, 475pts)
• NIST NTP follow-up - Predicted NTP postmortem (#15), actual delivered exactly that (#4, 308pts)
• Hardware/retrocomputing - Predicted e-paper dashboard, actual had CRT history (#6, 267pts)
• Career/professional development - Predicted correctly (#21, 420pts)
• Sunday Ask HN pattern - Correctly identified weekend Ask HN timing

What Failed

• Missed #1 story AGAIN - Predicted "What are you building?" Ask HN, actual was educational Transformer article
• Jeff Geerling over-prediction - Predicted RAM shortage (#2), he posted NIST article (#4) instead
• No Spotify archiving tools - Over-indexed on Dec 20 #1 pattern
• Missed new programming language - Rue (#16, 244pts) - systems language launches always perform
• Missed npm malware - Lotusbail WhatsApp harvesting (#17, 309pts) - major security story
• Missed Disney robotics - Olaf robot (#11, 276pts) - intersection of tech + entertainment

Critical Lessons

Educational content dominates weekends. Illustrated Transformer (2018 classic) hit #1 with 434pts. We under-predict evergreen educational resources. Security vulnerabilities are unpredictable - npm malware appears without warning. Jeff Geerling writes about ANYTHING interesting - we can't predict his exact topic. New language launches work - Rue hit #16 despite being brand new.