December 24, 2025: No Prediction Made
This date was skipped - no prediction was made in advance for December 24th (Christmas Eve). The analysis below describes what actually appeared on Hacker News that day, which helps inform future predictions.
What Actually Happened on Christmas Eve
Christmas Eve showed holiday-themed content mixed with breaking tech news. Key observation: HN Christmas traditions are reliable, but breaking M&A news (Nvidia/Groq) can't be predicted.
Top Stories
- #1: Phoenix X server in Zig (632pts, 201 comments) - Systems programming project in Zig
- #2: Tell HN: Merry Christmas (1149pts, 312 comments) - Annual HN Christmas tradition
- #3: Epstein documents X-ray analysis (519pts, 153 comments) - Privacy tool application to current events
- #4: Minimalist URL editor (487pts, 102 comments) - Simple web tool
- #5: Fabrice Bellard biography (continuation from Dec 23) (437pts, 105 comments)
- #6: Vibium browser automation (421pts, 89 comments) - Browser control tool
- #7: Nvidia acquires Groq for $20B (683pts, 396 comments) - MAJOR breaking M&A announcement
- #8: Unifi Travel Router (389pts, 167 comments) - Networking hardware discussion
- #9: The port I couldn't ship (356pts, 89 comments) - Software development story
- #10: Canadian disease data analysis (345pts, 78 comments) - Data analysis/public health
Key Patterns Observed
- "Tell HN: Merry Christmas" is RELIABLE - Annual tradition, always #1 or #2 on Christmas Eve
- Zig systems programming - Phoenix X server hit #1, showing Zig momentum
- Show HN on holidays - 3 Show HN projects in top 17 (X-ray tool, Vibium, HTML2PNG)
- Fabrice Bellard follow-up - Biography from Dec 23 continued trending
- Breaking M&A news unpredictable - Nvidia/Groq $20B (#7) was breaking news, impossible to predict
- Christmas-themed content - Jingle Bells taxonomy (#18), Christmas traditions
- Holiday timing - Engagement remained normal despite being Christmas Eve
The Nvidia/Groq Acquisition
#7: Nvidia acquires Groq for $20B (683pts, 396 comments) - This major acquisition was announced Christmas Eve and represents the type of breaking news that can't be predicted. It did NOT dominate the front page (#7, not #1), showing that even huge M&A deals don't override community preferences on holidays.
Lessons for Future Predictions
- ✅ "Tell HN: Merry Christmas" is 100% predictable - Include every Christmas Eve
- ✅ Fabrice Bellard content has multi-day staying power (Dec 23 → Dec 24)
- ✅ Zig systems programming continues momentum
- ✅ Show HN projects thrive on Christmas Eve (lighter moderation, engaged audience)
- ✅ Christmas Eve has NORMAL engagement (not reduced)
- ✅ Holiday-themed technical content (Jingle Bells taxonomy #18) performs well
- ❌ Can't predict breaking M&A announcements (Nvidia/Groq)
- ✅ Academic/research content (Canadian disease data #10, Nabokov guide #11)
- ✅ Compiler theory (Comptime C# #13, compiler surprises #14)
- ✅ Platform infrastructure (Bazel containers #16, Waymo #24)
Notable Stories
- #11: Nabokov's guide to Russian declensions (323pts, 67 comments) - Literary/linguistic content
- #12: Framework 16 laptop return story (329pts, 178 comments) - Hardware discussion
- #13: Comptime in C# (299pts, 95 comments) - Language feature analysis
- #14: Compiler surprises (285pts, 112 comments) - Compiler theory
- #15: E-scooter history (278pts, 89 comments) - Transportation/history
- #16: Bazel for containers (267pts, 45 comments) - DevOps tooling
- #17: HTML2PNG Show HN (256pts, 34 comments) - Web tool
- #18: Jingle Bells taxonomy (245pts, 56 comments) - Christmas-themed academic content
- #19: USB to GPIB adapter (234pts, 42 comments) - Hardware/retro computing
- #20: Don't become the machine (223pts, 78 comments) - Philosophy/career
- #22: World simulator research (198pts, 34 comments) - AI/ML research
- #25: Fennel/Neovim configuration (187pts, 23 comments) - Text editor tooling
- #26: Lean4 MaxCut problem (176pts, 12 comments) - Formal verification/math
- #27: How I left YouTube (165pts, 45 comments) - Digital minimalism
- #29: Knuth's priority deques (154pts, 18 comments) - Algorithms/data structures
Christmas Eve Specific Patterns
- Mix of holiday traditions (Merry Christmas #2) and normal tech content
- Show HN projects get excellent visibility
- Academic/research content performs well (Nabokov, Jingle Bells, World simulator)
- Vintage computing/hardware (USB to GPIB #19, Power Tower #21)
- Compiler theory cluster (Comptime, compiler surprises)
- Breaking news still trends but doesn't dominate (Nvidia #7)
Volume: Christmas Eve had NORMAL engagement levels, contrary to expectations of holiday slowdown. The "Tell HN: Merry Christmas" tradition and steady Show HN activity made for an active front page.