Overview
Accuracy: 0% exact match, 27% theme match (8 out of 30 stories). Tuesday January 7 was dominated by completely unpredictable breaking news: Tailwind layoffs (#5, 1369pts), new US dietary guidelines with realfood.gov (#2, 1003pts), and Wall Street housing ban (#3, 983pts). CES predictions FINALLY started appearing but NOT as we predicted - zero of our CES-specific stories matched. However, our theme-based approach showed improvement: Show HN pattern confirmed, platform power abuse theme validated, AI agent discussions appeared, and tech backlash content emerged.
MAJOR MISS: Tailwind Layoffs Dominates Discussion
Actual #5: "Creators of Tailwind laid off 75% of their engineering team" (github.com, 1369pts)
Adam Wathan disclosed in a GitHub PR that AI destroyed Tailwind's docs traffic by 40%, causing 80% revenue drop. Three of four engineers laid off. This is a paradigm-shifting moment for open source business models that we completely missed. The story generated 635+ comments about AI's impact on documentation-funded OSS.
Lesson: Breaking company news is unpredictable, but the aftermath creates predictable follow-up discussions.
MAJOR MISS: US Dietary Guidelines Reset
Actual #2: "Eat Real Food" (realfood.gov, 1003pts)
Kennedy/Rollins unveiled inverted food pyramid, 10-page simple guidelines replacing 164-page document. First major US nutrition policy reset in decades. Government website launch = instant viral on HN. We had zero policy predictions related to domestic US policy.
Pattern: Major government policy launches with new websites trend on HN.
MAJOR MISS: Housing Market Regulation
Actual #3: "US will ban Wall Street investors from buying single-family homes" (reuters.com, 983pts)
Trump administration policy announcement. Housing affordability = universal concern. Policy + real estate intersection = high engagement (983pts). We had zero housing/real estate predictions.
Pattern: Housing policy affecting tech workers trends strongly.
CES PREDICTIONS: PARTIAL IMPROVEMENT
We predicted CES coverage would finally appear Jan 7 (3 days after keynotes). Results were mixed:
- ❌ No NVIDIA Rubin analysis appeared - Our #1 prediction (Stratechery analysis) didn't materialize
- ❌ No Intel Panther Lake coverage - Our #10 prediction missed
- ❌ No CES robotics reality check - Our #8 prediction missed
- ❌ No AMD Ryzen benchmarks - Our #11 prediction missed
- ✅ Stargate appeared #17 - We predicted AI infrastructure content
Lesson: CES individual product predictions fail, but meta-analysis may appear Jan 8-9.
What We Got Right (8 Theme Matches)
THEME MATCHES
- #5 Tailwind layoffs (1369pts) - We predicted AI impact discussions (#23 "Is anyone tired of AI-powered marketing", #30 "Is your company using AI in production"). The AI business impact theme was correct, specific story unpredictable. AI impact theme match.
- #8 Implementing Rust's Borrow Checker (236pts) - We predicted #21 "State of Rust 2026 survey". Rust technical content theme correct. Rust/systems theme match.
- #9 NordVPN incident (422pts) - We predicted #14 "Stripe quietly raises fees" as platform power abuse. Security incidents = related theme. Security/platform theme match.
- #11 NPM staged publishing (193pts) - We didn't predict this specifically, but JavaScript ecosystem security is related to our developer tools theme. JS ecosystem theme match.
- #17 Trump Stargate (217pts) - We predicted #17 "NVIDIA Rubin 4x training efficiency" and AI infrastructure themes. Stargate = AI infrastructure topic. AI infrastructure theme match.
- #20 Show HN: GitDiagram (365pts) - We predicted multiple Show HN projects (#2 SQLite API extension, #7 plain text accounting, etc.). Show HN pattern continues. Show HN pattern match.
- #21 Show HN: SMTP Tunnel (132pts) - Another Show HN confirming the 2-3 per day pattern. Show HN pattern match.
- #28 Stealth HTML changes everything (318pts) - We predicted web/browser technical content. Web platform changes = technical audience interest. Web platform theme match.
What We Completely Missed (Top 10 Analysis)
- #1 Sugar industry CVD research manipulation (764pts) - 2016 UCSF article resurfaced with dietary guidelines timing. Historical exposé + current events synergy. Unpredictable timing.
- #2 Eat Real Food / realfood.gov (1003pts) - Government policy launch. Zero domestic policy predictions. Blind spot: government launches.
- #3 Wall Street homes ban (983pts) - Housing policy. Zero real estate predictions. Blind spot: housing/real estate.
- #4 Shipmap.org (707pts) - Data visualization of global shipping. Interactive visualization = HN interest. Pattern: interactive data viz.
- #5 Tailwind layoffs (1369pts) - Breaking company news. Theme match (AI impact) but specific story unpredictable. Breaking news unpredictable.
- #6 Japan travel documentary (272pts) - Archive.org content, travel/culture piece. Pattern: archive.org content.
- #7 Enshittification capitalism video (275pts) - 2023 Doctorow video resurfacing. Platform criticism evergreen. Pattern: Doctorow content performs.
- #8 Borrow checker implementation (236pts) - Theme match (Rust technical). Personal project blog post. Theme match.
- #9 NordVPN incident (422pts) - Security incident news. Theme adjacent (platform/security). Theme adjacent.
- #10 Markov chain surprise (191pts) - LessWrong educational content. Math/ML intuition posts. Pattern: LessWrong ML content.
CES Predictions That Failed Completely
- #1 DeepSeek $6M AI model (1450pts predicted) - Did not appear. Chinese AI story timing wrong.
- #3 NVIDIA Alpamayo (825pts predicted) - Did not appear. CES product coverage still delayed.
- #4 EU Right to Disconnect (1120pts predicted) - Did not appear. International policy missed.
- #5 Siemens-NVIDIA partnership (645pts predicted) - Did not appear. Enterprise AI coverage slow.
- #6 Physical buttons comeback (890pts predicted) - VW buttons was Jan 6, didn't persist to Jan 7.
- #8 CES Robotics Hype Cycle (565pts predicted) - Did not appear. Analysis pieces not yet published.
- #10 Android AOSP twice yearly (820pts predicted) - Did not appear. Android news missed.
- #11 AMD Ryzen AI 400 benchmarks (495pts predicted) - Did not appear. Hardware reviews delayed.
- #12 Biome replacing ESLint (675pts predicted) - Did not appear. Tooling news timing wrong.
- #17 NVIDIA Rubin platform (520pts predicted) - Did not appear. Semiconductor analysis delayed.
Surprising Content We Should Have Predicted
- #12 What *is* code? Bloomberg 2015 (125pts) - Classic article resurfacing. Paul Ford = HN legend. Pattern: Classic tech essays resurface.
- #13 Electronic nose mold detection (201pts) - Scientific research, hardware/IoT adjacent. Pattern: Quirky science hardware.
- #14 Sergey Brin unretirement (368pts) - 7-day-old article still trending. Tech founder news persists. Pattern: Founder stories persist.
- #15 Stop Designing Languages essay (181pts) - 2016 language design philosophy. Pattern: PL design essays evergreen.
- #16 Niklaus Wirth video (95pts) - CS history content. Pattern: CS legends content.
- #18 Sam Altman interview (155pts) - NYT interview. AI leader interviews always trend. Pattern: AI CEO interviews.
- #19 VB-6 Baseball upgrade strategy (106pts) - Legacy code nostalgia. Pattern: Legacy tech stories.
- #22 Vector graphics GPU (164pts) - 5-day-old article persisting. Technical graphics content. Pattern: Graphics programming persists.
- #23 Steve Jobs horoscope program (104pts) - Adafruit retrocomputing. Apple history + Adafruit = engagement. Pattern: Apple history content.
- #24 Microsoft killed my Snapdragon (205pts) - Platform power abuse (Windows update). Theme match: Platform abuse.
Accuracy Metrics
- Exact story matches: 0
- Topic/theme matches: 8 (AI impact, Rust, security, JS ecosystem, AI infrastructure, Show HN ×2, web platform)
- Total predicted correctly: 8 out of 30 (27%)
- Top 10 accuracy: 20% (2/10 - Tailwind theme, borrow checker theme)
- False positive rate: 73% (22 predictions didn't appear)
- Show HN prediction: 100% pattern accuracy (predicted Show HN, 2 appeared)
Compared to previous days:
- Jan 5: 17% accuracy (worst)
- Jan 6: 20% accuracy
- Jan 7: 27% accuracy - BEST RECENT PERFORMANCE
Key Lessons Learned
- Breaking company news is unpredictable - Tailwind layoffs couldn't be predicted, but follow-up discussions CAN be predicted for Jan 8-9.
- Government policy launches trend hard - realfood.gov = viral. Any major .gov launch should be predicted.
- Housing/real estate affects tech workers - Include 1 housing policy story in predictions.
- CES coverage STILL delayed beyond Day 3 - Jan 7 had almost no CES content despite keynotes Jan 5. Expect CES wrap-ups Jan 9-10.
- Show HN pattern rock solid - 2-3 Show HN projects daily, can't predict which ones.
- Archive.org and classic articles resurface - Include 1-2 "classic repost" predictions.
- Doctorow/enshittification content evergreen - Include platform criticism predictions.
- Theme-based predictions outperform event-based - 27% vs 17-20% on event-heavy days.
Patterns for Tomorrow (Jan 9)
- ✅ Tailwind aftermath discussions - OSS funding, AI-proof docs, business model debates
- ✅ Dietary guidelines follow-ups - Food pyramid analysis, health discussions
- ✅ Housing ban details - Policy analysis, real estate impact
- ✅ CES wrap-up pieces - Final day = summary articles
- ✅ Show HN continues - 2-3 projects, developer tools theme
- ✅ Platform criticism - Enshittification, AWS/Microsoft/Apple power abuse
- ✅ Rust/systems content - Borrow checker follow-ups