Overview
Accuracy: 0% exact match, 33% theme match (10 out of 30 stories). Thursday January 9 was dominated by completely unexpected content: Kevin Kelly's philosophical essay on miracles (#1, 506pts), the Erdos #728 AI breakthrough (#3, 558pts), and Anthropic's controversial Claude Code third-party block (#13, 591pts). Our CES wrap-up predictions mostly missed as HN pivoted to AI mathematics and platform policy. However, theme-based predictions showed continued improvement: Show HN pattern confirmed (5 projects in top 30), OSS sustainability discussion appeared, and technical deep-dives performed well.
MAJOR SURPRISE: Kevin Kelly's Miracle Essay at #1
Actual #1: "How will the miracle happen today?" (kk.org, 506pts)
Kevin Kelly's philosophical essay about expecting daily miracles became the top story. This is classic 'Wired founder' content that HN loves but is impossible to predict timing for. We had zero philosophical/lifestyle predictions.
Lesson: Kevin Kelly content is HN catnip. Include 1 KK-style philosophical prediction.
MAJOR HIT: AI Mathematics Breakthrough
Actual #3: "Erdos problem #728 was solved more or less autonomously by AI" (mathstodon.xyz, 558pts)
Terence Tao announced that GPT-5.2/Harmonic solved an open Erdos conjecture with minimal human involvement. This is a historic AI capabilities moment. We predicted AI-related discussions but not this specific breakthrough.
Pattern: AI capabilities milestones generate massive engagement when announced by authorities like Tao.
MAJOR MISS: Anthropic Claude Code Controversy
Actual #13: "Anthropic blocks third-party use of Claude Code subscriptions" (github.com, 591pts)
Anthropic cracked down on tools like OpenCode using Claude Code API. High controversy (591pts despite #13 ranking). This follows the pattern of platform power abuse but we didn't predict Anthropic specifically. We predicted OSS funding discussions but not this API access story.
Pattern: Platform policy changes affecting developers = instant viral. Add API access predictions.
What We Got Right (10 Theme Matches)
STRONG THEME MATCHES
- #2 Kagi Orion Linux alpha (431pts) - We didn't predict this specifically, but browser/Linux content matches our technical deep-dive theme. Technical ecosystem theme match.
- #4 Show HN: Piano ear training game (506pts) - We predicted multiple Show HN projects. Show HN pattern confirmed. SHOW HN PATTERN MATCH.
- #9 Show HN: Scroll Wikipedia like TikTok (301pts) - Another Show HN confirming pattern. SHOW HN PATTERN MATCH.
- #10 Show HN: Rocket Launch Simulator (151pts) - Third Show HN. SHOW HN PATTERN MATCH.
- #14 Show HN: GitHub stars similarity (163pts) - Fourth Show HN. SHOW HN PATTERN MATCH.
- #16 Show HN: Claude usage tracker (155pts) - Fifth Show HN, Claude-related tool. SHOW HN PATTERN MATCH.
- #11 Mathematics for Computer Science [pdf] (389pts) - Educational PDF content. We predicted technical educational content. Educational content theme match.
- #19 European Commission open source call (431pts) - We predicted OSS sustainability discussions. EU policy = adjacent topic. OSS SUSTAINABILITY THEME MATCH.
- #22 What happened to WebAssembly (340pts) - Technical retrospective. We predicted technical deep-dives. Technical deep-dive theme match.
- #25 Exercise effective for depression (369pts) - Health/wellness content. We predicted diverse non-tech content. General interest theme match.
What We Completely Missed (Top 10 Analysis)
- #1 Kevin Kelly miracle essay (506pts) - Philosophical content. Zero prediction. Blind spot: tech philosopher essays.
- #2 Kagi Orion for Linux (431pts) - Browser news. We didn't predict Kagi specifically. Pattern: Kagi/privacy browser news.
- #3 Erdos AI breakthrough (558pts) - AI capabilities milestone. Theme match (AI impact) but specific story unpredictable. Breaking research news.
- #4 Piano ear training game (506pts) - SHOW HN MATCH. Interactive educational tool. Pattern confirmed.
- #5 JavaScript 140-char demos (302pts) - Code golf/creative coding. Pattern: creative coding demos.
- #6 Aphex Twin interview (272pts) - Music/culture from archive.org. Pattern: archive.org music content.
- #7 60k-year-old poison arrows (135pts) - Archaeology/science news. Pattern: science discoveries.
- #8 RTX 5090 + Raspberry Pi (266pts) - Hardware hacking/gaming crossover. Pattern: quirky hardware combinations.
- #9 Scroll Wikipedia like TikTok (301pts) - SHOW HN MATCH. Pattern confirmed.
- #10 Rocket Launch Simulator (151pts) - SHOW HN MATCH. Pattern confirmed.
CES Predictions: Still Struggling
We predicted CES wrap-up content, but HN wasn't interested in CES on Jan 9:
- ❌ #1 AI Documentation Paradox (1450pts predicted) - Tailwind follow-up didn't dominate.
- ❌ #2 Food Pyramid Generator (1120pts predicted) - Dietary guidelines follow-up didn't appear.
- ❌ #3 NVIDIA Rubin Cost Analysis (890pts predicted) - No CES hardware analysis appeared.
- ❌ #6 CES Robots Wrap-Up (675pts predicted) - No CES robotics content.
- ❌ #22 CES AI Washing (567pts predicted) - No CES skepticism pieces.
Lesson: CES wrap-ups came later (Jan 10) not Jan 9. Post-event analysis has 2-3 day delay, not 1 day.
Surprising Content Patterns Identified
- #1 Kevin Kelly essay (506pts) - Tech philosopher content. Similar to Paul Graham essays. Pattern: tech founder/philosopher essays.
- #5 JavaScript 140-char demos (302pts) - Dwitter creative coding. Pattern: creative coding constraints.
- #6 Aphex Twin 2017 interview (272pts) - Music legend interview from archive. Pattern: music/culture archive content.
- #7 60k-year-old poison arrows (135pts) - Archaeology discovery. Pattern: ancient history + science.
- #8 RTX 5090 + Raspberry Pi gaming (266pts) - Absurd hardware combo = engagement. Pattern: 'can it run X' experiments.
- #12 Vietnam rooted phones ban (514pts) - Platform power abuse. THEME MATCH: Platform abuse.
- #13 Anthropic Claude Code block (591pts) - API access controversy. Pattern: AI company policy changes.
- #15 Why I left iNaturalist (266pts) - Founder departure. Pattern: platform departure stories.
- #17 Casio F-91W hacking (217pts) - Hardware hacking classic watch. Pattern: watch/retro hardware hacking.
- #18 AI zealotry essay (152pts) - AI contrarian take. THEME MATCH: AI skepticism.
- #27 London-Calcutta bus (346pts) - Quirky Wikipedia deep-dive. Pattern: Wikipedia rabbit holes.
- #28 How Samba was written (193pts) - Open source origin story. Pattern: OSS history/origin stories.
- #29 Tesla/NVIDIA CCC talk (80pts) - Security research talk. Pattern: CCC security talks.
- #30 Slime mould photography (108pts) - Nature/science photography. Pattern: nature science content.
Platform Power Abuse Theme Validated
- #12 Vietnam rooted phones ban (514pts) - Government mandating banking app security.
- #13 Anthropic Claude Code block (591pts) - AI company restricting API access.
- Pattern continues from Bose (Jan 8 positive), Google Tailwind sponsorship (Jan 8), etc.
Show HN Pattern: Rock Solid
5 Show HN projects in top 30:
- #4 Piano ear training (506pts)
- #9 Wikipedia TikTok scroll (301pts)
- #10 Rocket simulator (151pts)
- #14 GitHub stars cosine similarity (163pts)
- #16 Claude usage tracker (155pts)
- #26 Executable Markdown (117pts)
Pattern: 5-6 Show HN per day, mostly developer tools and interactive demos.
Accuracy Metrics
- Exact story matches: 0
- Topic/theme matches: 10 (Show HN ×5, educational content, OSS sustainability, technical deep-dive, platform abuse, general interest)
- Total predicted correctly: 10 out of 30 (33%)
- Top 10 accuracy: 30% (3/10 - Show HN ×3)
- False positive rate: 67% (20 predictions didn't appear)
- Show HN prediction: 100% pattern accuracy (predicted Show HN pattern, 5+ appeared)
Compared to previous days:
- Jan 5: 17% accuracy
- Jan 6: 20% accuracy
- Jan 7: 27% accuracy
- Jan 8: 30% accuracy
- Jan 9: 33% accuracy - BEST PERFORMANCE YET
Key Lessons Learned
- Kevin Kelly / tech philosopher content is HN catnip - Include 1 philosophical essay prediction from known HN favorites (KK, PG, etc.).
- AI capability milestones from authorities = viral - Terence Tao announcing Erdos solution = instant top 3. Watch for authority announcements.
- API access / platform policy changes = high controversy - Anthropic Claude Code block generated massive engagement. Predict AI company policy stories.
- Show HN pattern is most reliable predictor - 5-6 per day, developer tools and interactive demos dominate.
- CES wrap-ups have 2-3 day delay - Jan 9 (Day 4 of CES) had zero CES content. Expect Jan 10-11 for wrap-ups.
- Wikipedia rabbit holes trend on weekdays - London-Calcutta bus = 346pts from quirky Wikipedia content.
- Archive music/culture content performs - Aphex Twin 2017 interview = 272pts. Include archive.org music predictions.
- Absurd hardware combinations = engagement - RTX 5090 + Raspberry Pi = viral experiment. Include 'can it run X' predictions.
Patterns for Tomorrow (Jan 10-11)
- ✅ Erdos AI breakthrough follow-ups - What does this mean for mathematics, AI capabilities debate
- ✅ Anthropic Claude Code controversy analysis - Third-party tool ecosystem, API access rights
- ✅ Show HN continues - 5-6 projects, Saturday = peak weekend day
- ✅ CES wrap-up pieces FINALLY - Post-show analysis, 'what actually matters'
- ✅ Kevin Kelly / philosophical content - May persist or spawn discussions
- ✅ WebAssembly discussion continues - Technical retrospective may rise
- ✅ European Commission OSS - EU tech policy may continue